The Decline of Deer Populations
     The total U.S.deer population in 2017 was about 33.5 million, up from a recent low of about 32.2 million in 2014, down from the recent peak in 2000 of about 38.1 million deer.  The whitetail population fell from about 33.5 million in 2000 to 28.6 million in 2014, recovering to about 29.5 million in 2017.  The mule, blacktail, and other deer populations fell from about 4.6 million in 2000 to about 3.6 million in 2014, recovering to about 4 million in 2017.  The recent peak for mule and blacktails was around 1960, illustrated in the graph below for the estimated U.S. deer population from 1450 to 2017.

     Deer were nearly hunted to extinction by the early 1900s and were extirpated in many regions.  Conservation and restocking allowed whitetail populations to recover to about pre-colonization levels while blacktails and mule deer are below historic levels.
    A Wall Street Journal article reports that “The U.S. now has 30 million deer, a hundred times more than a century ago" failing to point out that deer faced a near extinction event 100 years ago and that the white-tail population has approximately returned to its historic population size.  [This and other examples in news and research].  The modern decline of mule and blacktail populations has been a major concern of wildlife agencies for decades.
     The population estimate [methodology] is based on information from state agencies and other groups collected on this website, discussed on each state page that can be accessed by clicking on the drop down menus above.  The estimate also relies on harvest data for each state, available using the links at the top of the column at right.  A few numbers are unavailable and estimated.   Population estimates can have a wide range of reliability.

     As illustrated in the figure above, the U.S. deer harvest fell by 14.7 percent from 2000 to 2017, from about 7.5 million to 6.4 million.  Mild winters in the north and recovery from the Texas drought account for much of the uptick since 2014. The Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies estimates the total U.S. mule and blacktail deer population at 4 million in 2015 and 4.2 million for 2016 - 2018.  Some numbers are goals, so population estimates from these states have been adjusted based on harvest data.  Detail.
     Data for the trend in the white-tailed deer population from 2000 and earlier is based on Kert VerCauteren in The Deer Boom and the Wildlife Management Institute's 1984 book "Whitetail Deer: Ecology and Management", updated using current harvest data and state population estimates.  Recent University of Wyoming research puts the white-tailed deer population prior to European settlement at 30 to 40 million, so the historic estimate above may be low.  A summary of historic mule and blacktail population estimates. 
     Research published in 2014 and 2016 [PDF] using data from this site identified the recent change in the total population trend, turning down around the year 2000.
Causes for the Decline of the Deer Population
    Habitat loss, change, and fragmentation are known to play a role in the decline.  Many fear that chronic wasting disease will drive the deer population to low levels over the coming decades.
     Searching the internet, this site has tracked many of the proposed causes for the declining deer population reported in the column at right and in more detail on for each state on their page, including:
-  Maine and New England:   Changes that have occurred on commercially managed forest lands – based on a new Forest Study
-  Connecticut:  First decline since early 1900’s, increased predation  (Bobcat, Coywolf)
-  Western North Carolina:  Mature Forests, Cherokee Indians are restocking deer herds
-  West Virginia:  Aging forests in high mountains
-  Georgia:  Coyotes
-  Minnesota:  Severe Winters
-  Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota:  Overharvest, drought, EHD
-  Colorado:  Food supply, predation, energy development
-  North Dakota:  Drought, EHD (severe decline), habitat loss
-  Montana:  Loss of habitat, severe winter, predation
-  Oregon:  Reduction in logging related to timber sales

      The map below illustrates the 2013 harvest as a percent of peak harvest. The deepest declines, in red, appear in western states where the mule and blacktail deer reside.
Elk populations, once exceeding 10 million in the continental United States, number about 1 million.

Mule Deer and Blacktail Deer Populations Have
 Been in Decline for Many Years

The graph below shows the estimated 1911 to 2016 California deer population, made up of blacktails and mule deer, falling by about 75 percent from 1960. See the California page for an analysis of what appears to be the largest modern decline in the deer population. 

Read a peer reviewed research article demonstrating how public management decisions in California may have contributed to the long term decline of the deer population.

Articles about the Decline of Deer Populations

The Deer Debate, decline of black tail deer May 1, 2014 Oregon, Jefferson Public Radio
... , the black-tailed deer has been in decline across its range since the late 1970s. A state-wide survey in 1979 estimated the total population at 452,000; the 2004 estimate pegged it at only 320,000. ODFW cites a number of reasons for the decline, loss of habitat and disease chief among them...

Disappearing Mule Deer A New Reality Throughout Western US January 4, 2013 NPR, Audio Discussion
Scientists throughout the West are trying to figure out the mystery of the disappearing mule deer. Since the 1970s, biologists in Colorado, Wyoming and Utah have seen deer populations drop by 50 percent.  The potential causes vary. Oil and gas development and the growth in coyote populations top the list.

Unlocking the needs and habits of our mule deer March 28, 2014 Washington, The Wenatchee World
... As has happened in the Wenatchee area over the past 50 years, traditional mule deer wintering grounds have been converted to human settlement. Mule deer populations have decreased since 1940 throughout the western U.S...

Discover the Mule Deer, Issues Contributing to the Decline of Population, Wyoming

Where have all the Oregon deer gone? November 15, 2012 Portland Tribune
... Deer populations are struggling across the state, says Don Whittaker, an ODFW game biologist. That’s true for black-tailed deer and mule deer, both native to Oregon.  
Black-tailed deer numbers are hard to track because of their reclusive nature and thick forested habitats... The problem may partly stem from the series of four large forest fires, starting in the 1930s, known as the Tillamook Burn, which consumed 550 square miles of timber in Northwest Oregon... Reforestation of the burned land .... And as charred lands came back to life, trees began to shade out the deers’ favorite shrubs...

The California Deer Decline and Possibilities for Restoration Cal-Nevada Wildlife Transactions, 1976 

Seasonal neighbors: residential development encroaches on mule deer winter range in central Oregon March 27, 2012 Oregon, U.S. Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station, Marie Oliver
Mule deer populations in central Oregon are in decline, largely because of habitat loss. Several factors are likely contributors. Encroaching juniper and invasive cheatgrass are replacing deer forage with high nutritional value, such as bitterbrush and sagebrush. Fire suppression and reduced timber harvests mean fewer acres of early successional forest, which also offer forage opportunities. Human development, including homes and roads, is another factor. It is this one that scientists with the Pacific Northwest Research Station and their collaborators investigated in a recent study. ..

The Mule Deer Wars December 17, 2012 Colorado, Huffington Post
... It began in the 1990s, when state wildlife managers started reporting lower mule deer populations and decreased fawn-to-doe ratios throughout the West....  in 1999 the Colorado and Idaho wildlife departments launched long-term investigations into the true causes of the perceived mule deer decline. Both studies soon enough reported, in line with previous research throughout the West, that coyotes and other predators indeed are capable of keeping isolated and already critically low deer populations from recovering via a rare phenomenon known as a "predator pit." 

...  for the past 15 years show a consistent drop in estimated populations in the region ... Brad Weinmeister, a terrestrial biologist ... the downward trend is likely a combination of the extended drought, less nutritious range, and increasing development and populations... In the urban areas they are doing OK ... Predation of deer by coyotes and mountain lions does not appear to be causing the overall mule deer decline either ...

Proceedings of the 9th Western States and Provinces Deer & Elk Workshop, 2011 (Describes a number of recent studies related to decline of deer populations)
Effect Of Enhanced Nutrition On Mule Deer Population Rate Of
Change:  We found strong evidence that enhanced nutrition of deer reduced coyote and mountain lion predation rates of less than 6 month old fawns and adult females.  Winter range habitat quality was a limiting factor ... we recommend evaluating habitat treatments for deer that are designed to set-back succession and increase productivity of late-seral pinyon-juniper habitats that presently dominate the winter range....
Utilizing Antler Point Restrictions For Mule Deer To Maximize 
Hunter Opportunity In Southern British Columbia:  We provide explanations as to why our results appear to counter some findings from other studies and suggest that utilizing a combination of 4-point and any-buck seasons for mule deer for 92 days can maintain maximum hunter opportunity while retaining a sustainable harvest.

From Wildlife.Utah.Gov: "Since 1922, the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA) has served as a leader promoting management and protection of fish and wildlife in the western United States and Canada. An organization represented by 17 states and four Canadian provinces, WAFWA has faced the difficult challenge of sifting through the ever-changing societal, economic, political and scientific issues that define natural resource management in a West that has undergone many changes. WAFWA is particularly concerned about mule deer, a species that lives in every North American habitat except for the tropics, arctic and extreme deserts. Mule deer numbers and distribution have been declining throughout the West since the latter third of the 20th century. To address this concern, the Mule Deer Working Group was established at the midwinter meeting of WAFWA in 1998. The group was charged with finding “solutions to our common mule deer management problems,” expanding “cooperative research and management in the Western states and provinces,” and sharing information with agency directors and administrators on mule deer issues."

Study of the Reasons for the Decline of Nevada's Deer Population: MULE DEER INITIATIVE Commission Briefing - February 20, 2009, (Oregon). Issue: Researchers and wildlife managers generally concede mule deer achieved maximum abundance during the 1950s and ‘60s. Since then, mule deer have declined across the West, including Oregon. The most recent decline appened during the early 1990s and, though not fully understood, it is believed to be primarily due to the combined effects of drought and severe winters. Historically, deer populations rebounded quickly after such climatic extremes. However, in recent years, production and survival of fawns have remained at depressed levels. Low recruitment, severe winters, dry summers, changing predator/prey relationships, and increased habitat loss have pushed mule deer populations lower than the department and public desire.

[PDF] THE CALIFORNIA DEER DECLINE AND POSSIBILITIES FOR RESTORATION by WM Longhurst - -This paper dealing with the possible factors responsible for the decline of deer populations in California is a progress report and a more detailed and ...

North American Mule Deer Conservation Plan - MULE DEER ... From Alaska, down the Pacific Coast of California to southern Baja Mexico and from the extreme ..... decline of mule deer populations over large portions ..

SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS OUTLINE BLACK-TAILED DEER DECLINE - Black-tailed deer, once numerous throughout the woods of western Oregon, are suffering a population decline, scientists reported ...

UF Research:  Total Historic Deer Population  November 28, 2000 Science Daily
... experts believe the population of [white-tail] deer in the United States is about equal to what it was before Europeans arrived, with somewhere between 24 million and 34 million nationwide. That's up from just 350,000 in 1900, when the population crashed largely because of unregulated hunting... 

Estimated whitetail populations.  Published by Deer and Deer Hunting in the 1998 Almanac
Texas 3,748,000, Michigan 1,900,000, Mississippi 1,750,000, Wisconsin 1,600,000, Alabama 1,500,000

Statistical Abstract, 1957:  454,000 deer killed by hunters in the United States

An estimated 1 million moose in North America in 2018.

When Europeans first came to settle America, it was estimated that as many as 10 million elk roamed the land [Kathy Funk, the Virginia volunteer state chair for the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation]  ... 

Deer have been in the state of Washington since at least 4.9 million years ago, as documented by a recent deer bone recovered in Ellensberg.  Deer were thought to have crossed into North America using the Bering Sea land bridge.

White-tailed deer were predominant in pre-Columbian Panama feasts August 2019, DiCYT
...  In pre-Columbian times, the white-tailed deer was among the most abundant and frequently consumed mammals in Panama. It was also an icon, represented on thousands of clay vessels... Spanish conquistadors left some clues. They noted the abundance of deer in indigenous communities along the Pacific coast near Sitio Sierra ...

Reports of 
Deer Populations in Decline

... According to the Mississippi Resident and Nonresident Hunter Survey, the deer harvest during the 2018-19 season remained at the lowest recorded level as biologists face increasing challenges in deer management. The survey indicates about 197,000 deer were taken in the 2018 season. It's a slight increase from 2017's 195,000 estimate, but because it's an estimate, the difference is negligible..,

Falling elk populations bring hunting reductions September 11, 2019 Washington, Yakima Herald-Republic
... Low cow numbers and falling survival rates among calves continue to plague Yakima’s elk herd ... researchers don’t know why their survival numbers are historically low... Winter surveys estimated a population of 8,231 elk, slightly fewer than last year’s less reliable surveys during a mild winter at lower elevations and well below the objective of 9,500...

Mule deer hunting near Cody expected to be 'not as good' September 6, 2019 Wyoming, Powell Tribune
... herds have undergone severe population declines due to tough winters and poor fawn production and recruitment over the last five years...  Game and Fish began implementing changes to the seasons last year by reducing doe harvest opportunity to maximize the ability of the herd to rebound and implementing four-point antler restrictions to reduce buck harvest..,

Wildlife biologists say mule deer exiting Bend en masse August 31, 2019 Oregon, The Bulletin
... Mule deer numbers are falling in Central Oregon as fast as humans arrive, according to annual inventories conducted by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife. The Paulina Unit, east of Bend, is down to 5,918 deer from 15,400 in 2002, a 61% decline. Wildlife biologists say the deer are losing habitat to growing construction in and around Bend...

Few Fawns Surviving On Chattahoochee National Forest August 3, 2019 Georgia, Georgia Outdoor News
... Only three of 13 fawns ... survived to 4 months... coyotes killed four, black bears ate two (possibly three) and a bobcat killed one...

Moose population declines in Idaho July 18, 2019 The Bulletin
... Biologists have no clear answers but say the decline is happening across the West ... does not know moose population numbers, but estimates there are 10,000 to 12,000 moose ...

Deer numbers showing improvement in County June 15, 2019 Maine, Sun Journal
... in some Aroostook County townships the lynx, a federally listed endangered species, was more prevalent than deer ... The deer situation has improved some in the County, but tough winters and continued predation holds back the recovery of deer numbers ... coyote packs take down deer year-round, it’s the deer in wintering areas that are the most vulnerable ...

... Mule deer populations around the West are down — 31 percent since 1991 ... some studies show that if you kill off a lot of coyotes, they breed even more.  "Oftentimes, coyote control programs have been implemented, and in some, or many, instances the effects were negligible," ...

MNRF hopes to grow moose population June 1, 2019 Ontario,
... Aerial surveys have shown declining calf moose numbers in recent years across Ontario ... potential benefits from changing quota settings and hunting rules can include increasing adult tag quotas by growing the moose population, and by decreasing the harvest of calves...

IDFG panel gets earful in Grangeville May 7, 2019 Idaho, Lewiston Morning Tribune
... Those who addressed the commissioners said deer and elk numbers have slid over the past decade or more, and changes are needed to hunting seasons to bring them back. They also said the Idaho Department of Fish and Game needs to collect more data on deer herd sizes and composition...

A declining wildland deer herd May 9, 2019 Montana, Bigfork Eagle
... One of the major current conservation issues in Northwest Montana is our rapidly declining wildland deer herd. All hunters and biologists agree that our deer herd is down substantially from past years. But, there is substantial disagreement on the cause of that decline...

... "It's not like there's an occasional cougar sighting. There are daily cougar sightings," ... Our deer population is going down so fast that our predators are going to have to find something to eat." ...

Declining mule deer numbers prompts study April 4, 2019 British Columbia, BCLocalNews
... Why are some of our Interior mule deer populations declining? How are predators and the recent huge wildfires affecting them? ... B.C.’s largest collaborative mule deer study was launched last year...

... "Across the state, we've been seeing [moose] numbers go down," ...Across Idaho, available tags for antlered moose dropped from 669 in the 2017-2018 season to 560 later this year. For antlerless moose, the tag amounts dropped from 136 to 74...

America's caribou have quietly gone extinct March 22, 2019 Mail Tribune
... After years of dwindling, the last remaining herd of caribou known to roam between Canada and the Pacific Northwest states of Idaho and Washington was down to just one known member. In January, wildlife managers in British Columbia captured the female ...  "That animal was not going to survive." ...

... "Four herds in B.C. and Alberta have gone extinct over the last 25 years and there are less than 3,000 woodland caribou in the study area in the two provinces." ... The most dramatic population surge occurred In the Klines-Za population, north of Prince George, BC, where maternal penning and wolf removal strategies were used. In three years, the herd nearly doubled, from 36 to more than 67...

... the new FSC standards have specific rules and criteria around preserving woodland caribou ... The latest assessment of woodland caribou suggests 81 per cent of Canada’s herds are in decline...

A large group of wildlife scientist and conservationists are trying to solve the declining number of mule deer in the Okanagan Valley. - March 4, 2019 British Columbia

... One hunter who had been afield for 40 years and whose family has a longtime deer camp near Sherman Pass spoke of seeing only one mature mule deer buck and a handful of does last season.  He tearfully called for a six-year deer hunting moratorium across Eastern Washington so future generations would have opportunities to see the animals...

What extinction in Idaho looks like: Last caribou captured, ending conservation program March 1, 2019 Idaho, Idaho Statesman
... The British Columbia Ministry of Forests’s capture ended more than 35 years of conservation ... lone female ... Forests were cut and burned. Deer that thrive in the brush that was left over moved in, carrying a parasite known as a brainworm. That all but wiped out the caribou...

Dwindling deer population a diverse problem February 27, 2018 Virginia, Fredericksburg.com18h
... King George, Caroline. Essex and Westmoreland Counties are all down extensively [harvest], 50 percent or more, against those five-year averages. Meanwhile counties at the margins of the region, such as Fauquier, Orange and Culpeper are only down 11, 20 and 21 percent, respectively...

Scoping meeting targets shrinking mule deer herds February 26, 2019 Wyoming, Powell Tribune
... Mule deer population trends in the area are down, with no immediate hope of a rebound... n the Upper Shoshone and Clark’s Fork herds ...  For the past few years, harsh winter weather — particularly hard on fawns — has been the largest factor in population declines ...

From out of the fire, 'a reset' February 24, 2019 Colorado, The Daily Planet
... The number of mule deer ... on the south side of the Uncompahgre Plateau, had fallen 75 percent since 1980 ...  issues with the habitat ... overgrazing ... It’s not even good livestock forage there ... a pair of low-flying cropdusters, guided by GPS coordinates, will be releasing seeds over a section of the mule deer’s decimated winter range ...

Senator Says Hunting Guide Bill Would Stop Overhunting February 22, 2019 Indiana, Eagle 99.3 FM WSCH
... Senate Bill 363 would keep hunting guides from leading hunts if they violating license laws... “Many people are concerned the deer population is getting too small in our state because of overhunting,” ...

Idaho Fish and Game adding big game proposals February 18, 2019
... Winter surveys are also showing that mule deer populations in 66 and 69 are 38 percent lower in 2019 than they were when last surveyed in 2013... wildlife managers are recommending elimination of either-sex hunts in units ...

Those high-flyin' Kansas deer February 18, 2019 Hays Post
... The study began as a means to help KS Dept of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism biologists understand why mule deer are steadily regressing westward and being replaced by whitetails... This year the goal was to capture, tag and collar an additional 30 does near Scott City and an additional 30 farther north near Lenora ...

Saving the elk through conservation and advocacy February 15, 2019 Colorado, Vail Daily News
... With more than 4,000 less elk in the Eagle Valley today than in 2002, including sharp declines in the annual number of elk calves, the Rocky Mountain Elk Foundation is particularly focused on elk calf retention rates and recruitment... We're losing extreme amounts of wildlife habitat every day...

... Climate change, reduced forage and predation are blamed for the large ungulates’ decline, Idaho Department of Fish and Game regional wildlife biologist Kara Campbell said...

... Climate change, reduced forage and predation are blamed for the large ungulates’ decline ... Fire suppression and reduced logging has also limited the summer forage for moose ... moose populations rebounded in Idaho and Montana roughly 50 years after the massive 1910 wildfires...

... The first large-scale movement study of mule deer in the Sheridan Region kicked off last month near Kaycee ... efforts were part of the Mule Deer Initiative, a statewide program originally created to address a severe decline in mule deer population across the state...

Washington loses its last woodland caribou January 25, 2019 Washington, SFGate
...Washington and the contiguous United States have lost their last woodland caribou, as British Columbia officials have captured and shipped the one surviving animal to a breeding facility in Revelstoke, B.C... The small, quiet, reclusive woodland caribou have received far less local and global attention than Washington's photogenic orca whales...

Growth crowds elk, deer in more ways than one January 16, 2019 Colorado,
... hundreds of elk used to graze between Carbondale and Glenwood  ... “You’re seeing a direct loss of habitat and also extra people that are recreating on the lands that are left,” observed John Groves, Carbondale District Wildlife Manager. “We’re probably less than half the population we had 15 years ago.” ...

... some of the main reasons there has been a decline [in the deer population] include fire suppression, bad habitats, lack of nutrition options and a large number of predators in the public lands... have also started the Baseball Thinning project to improve wildlife habitat ... the added benefit of reducing fire hazard in the forest...

Ungulate population must be increased in wolf country December 19, 2018 Washington, Capital Press
... the mule deer population is greatly reduced in the mountain range and the moose are basically gone. Today, data from a collared wolf in the area shows extreme daily movement in search of prey. Applying the Optimum Foraging Theory ... with the lack of natural prey, livestock becomes the most abundant...

... near the North Pole ...Since the mid-1990s, the size of reindeer and caribou herds has declined by 56 percent... from an estimated 4.7 million animals to 2.1 million, a loss of 2.6 million. “Five herds,” out of 22 monitored “in the Alaska-Canada region, have declined more than 90 percent ...

Big Game Populations Are at Risk November 23, 2018 Montana, Flathead Beacon
... Sportsmen from western Montana ... meeting regarding the declining elk, deer, moose and sheep populations in Region 1... from Idaho, the elk populations in the Lolo region stood at 16,000 elk in 1995 and have plummeted to less than 1,000 in 2016..,

Deer population in better shape November 14, 2018 North Dakota, Jamestown Sun
... "While we hope to see changes in habitat and conservation programs to help influence and increase deer and other wildlife populations, it's very unlikely we'll see deer numbers like we did in the early to mid-2000s," ..,

Prospects better for Wisconsin firearms deer season November 11, 2018 Duluth News Tribune 
... back in the early 2000s when hunters harvested more than 15,000 deer in Douglas County in one year alone, an all-time record that may never be broken ... The harvest likely will hit 5,000 deer after a kill of 4,554 last year in the county...

Point Reyes National Seashore is a place for wildlife viewing. The California endemic tule elk live on these public lands. But a congressional bill is moving that may eliminate many of the elk in favor of cattle grazing. In your national park! November 13, 2018 California

Two rarely seen woodland caribou spotted in Montana November 5, 2018 The Spokesman-Review
... an aerial survey of the South Selkirk Mountain caribou herd found only three surviving members, all female... Canadian officials move the surviving members of the South Selkirk Mountain caribou herd they hope to breed the animals in captivity ...

Elk Hunting Season: Decade of Decline October 24, 2018 Washington, The Columbian
... In 2008, the Mount St Helens elk herd was thriving ... Ten years of the spread of hoof disease and efforts to cull breeding cows had already reduced the herd before the devastating winter of 2016 hit... 2012, when more than 3,000 elk were harvested... Last year, a total of 981 elk were harvested during the general season in addition to 192 elk harvested by permit ..,

Mule deer forage availability and quality at the Chihuahuan Desert rangelands, Mexico after a severe three-year drought  [PDF} MP Olivas-Sánchez, C Vital-García, JP Flores-Margez… - Cogent Biology, 2018
... Mule deer historic range in Mexico has declined dramatically in the last decade...  Our results suggest that forage is appropriate to sustain mule deer populations, however, we found considerable variation in both localities suggesting a patchy landscape...

Studying wildlife ecology through road-killed animals October 19, 2018 Idaho, Rexburg Standard Journal
... I-84 became an impediment to migration...  many were killed ... many deer remained on the east side of the freeway and spent winters near Snowville, Utah. That winter range had insufficient forage for deer, and during the following winters, an estimated 40 percent of the herd died of malnutrition... the deer herd is currently less than half of what it was in the 1960s ...

Wildlife officials can't coax increase in Basalt, Glenwood deer herd population October 1, 2018 Colorado, Glenwood Springs Post Independent
... The deer population had plunged after the severe winter of 2007-08, so agency officials felt that reducing hunting for does would help the numbers bounce back. It didn't work out... The staff is recommending reducing the buck ratio to a range of 32 to 40 bucks per 100 does ..,

State seeking answers to vanishing mule deer October 1, 2018 Oregon, OregonReport
...enlisting the aid of hunters to determine why the state’s population of mule deer has dropped by nearly 10 percent in the past dozen years ... , the mule deer population in Oregon in 2016 was 226,775, down by 4,466 since 2013, and 20,575 since 2004. Between 2013 and 2016, the Rocky Mountain elk population in Oregon has increased by 6 percent to 74,227..,

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