Long Term Trends in California's Deer Population

Recent Deer News and Population Estimates

   Historic data and information


The Long Decline  The state's deer population has fallen from the peak of about 2 million around 1960 to around 475,000 (450,000 to 500,000) in 2023.  The graph at right shows an historical population estimate for California deer.  See page 167 for details.  The estimate is part of an effort to build a statistical model to help understand the reasons for the decline of the California population.  This article provides evidence that reduced timber harvests and forest management, along with skewed deer demographics in California have contributed to the long term decline of the deer population.  Although neighboring states have experienced somewhat similar declines, data indicate that no state in the West or in the rest of the United States has seen their deer population fall as much as California in the modern era.


Deer hunting was suspended in 1917 to protect the population that had fallen to very low levels as a result of unregulated hunting.  California has conducted a bucks only harvest in all but a few years since hunting was resumed in 1927.  Although states often adjust the number of does taken in order to manage the population, no other state has pursued this policy for such a long time as California.   As a variety of sources suggest, skewed age and sex demographics as for the California herd are considered to be problems by many deer managers.  The state also applies a relatively high hunting pressure as measured by hunter success rate and compared to other states.


How Has Climate and Timber Production Related to the California Deer Population?


Habitat degradation due in part to forest management practices have long been associated with the decline of the deer population.  A statistical correlation of the decline in timber removed from California lands accounts for 63 percent of the variation in the decline of the deer population, as measured by the annual buck harvest,  from 1978 to 2016.  Fire suppression and other forest management practices have reduced the amount of edge habitat that support deer and other species, significantly increasing forest density  As illustrated by the graph below two factors, timber removed from California and drought,  account for 75 percent of the variation in a two year moving average of the California buck harvest over 1978 to 2016.